Sub-Saharan Africa's alcoholic beverage market is growing
Young, urbanized, and with a growing middle class: sub-Saharan Africa presents favorable conditions for long-term growth in the alcoholic beverage industry. But translating demographic potential into commercial growth is another matter entirely.
According to IWSR data, overall alcoholic beverage volumes in the region grew 1% in 2025 and are expected to increase at an average annual rate of 2% between 2025 and 2035, with all major categories expected to grow over the next decade. The main drivers of growth over the past year were RTDs (+11%) and spirits (+6%), while beer rose 1% and wine declined 3%. Agave-based spirits grew 8% and are forecast to grow 5% annually through 2035.
The paradox is that, even as interest in these markets grows, consumption patterns aren't necessarily moving toward premiumization. The dominant behavior is downtrading: from spirits to beer, from imported products to local brands, and from commercial products to artisanal or informal alternatives. Even smaller, more affordable formats are growing rapidly, appealing to consumers struggling with their spending power.
"Africa is often touted as the next frontier for alcoholic beverages, and demographics justify this focus," observes Russell Menezes, Research Director – Africa and Middle East at IWSR. The young population, population growth, and urbanization are indeed structurally supporting demand. But the market picture also reveals the strength of local production: in 2025, local products accounted for 97% of beer volumes, 80% of spirits, 87% of RTDs, 59% of wine, and 71% of cider.
This feature also changes the outlook for international producers. Demand is there, but entering markets means dealing with deeply rooted prices, distribution, and consumption habits, as well as economies subject to volatility that IWSR considers structural, not simply cyclical.
South Africa is the most mature of the three markets, with beer showing some resilience, growing 3% in 2025 and expected to average 2% annually through 2035. However, RTDs performed much better, with a 14% increase, buoyed by the convenience of formats and the interest of young consumers and women. Some spirits also showed interesting trends: Cognac/Armagnac grew 18%, Canadian whisky 8%, and tequila 7%.
In Nigeria, generational factors are more important. Millennials still constitute the largest consumer base, while Gen Z shows a much weaker relationship with alcohol. However, RTDs and spirits both grew by 8% in 2025. In whisky, downtrading is favoring Indian offerings, while blended Scotch is suffering from the search for better value.
Kenya, on the other hand, has seen some of the most significant growth: in 2025, local spirits are expected to grow by 13% and RTDs by 14%. However, two international categories are particularly impactful: Irish whiskey (+35%) and tequila (+65%). For the period 2025-2035, IWSR forecasts a normalization of these rates, with average annual growth of 3% and 6%, respectively.
Sub-Saharan Africa, therefore, is not a single market, but a complex of realities that must be interpreted on a case-by-case basis. The growth forecast for the next ten years is concrete, but capturing it will require products compatible with local purchasing power, widespread distribution, and a precise understanding of individual countries' habits. For now, domestic dynamics and production are primarily setting the pace.
