A Smaller Corn Crop Could Set the Stage for Higher Prices

In total, the planting is good, though not a repeat of last year or even 2024, both record yields. A smaller crop in an era of bigger buying interest, due to went up usage domestically and worldwide, continues to underpin quotation support for corn, in the near-term and potentially in the long-term.

With this year’s corn planting smaller than last year’s, it puts pressure on the U.S. and world plantings to come through in 2027. As fall unfolds, and there’s a better grasp as to what this year’s planting really is, we will see the tone for next year’s quotation activity.

From a producer’s perspective, capturing gains yet being able to take advantage of future potential rate opportunities is key to avoid getting caught on the wrong side of the trade, potentially in a big way. On the first anticipated 25–35% of production for 2027, consider selling on price value using forward contracts, hedge-to-arrive contracts, or futures. The idea is, regardless of where the trade may go, you can rationalize and defend the activity of locking in favorable returns for the operation.

Regardless of the tool used, make sure you understand the cost, risk, and potential. Put numbers on paper and use this in communications with your lender, so you have finances available if you’re hedging and rates continue to move higher.

Ultimately, your goal is to create a balanced marketing approach, flexibility, and a heightened confidence of the tools in your marketing toolbox. The idea is to make good decisions for the operation rather than emotionally charged responses to trade moves, which are always dynamic.

Editor’s Note: If you have any questions on this Perspective, feel free to contact Bryan Doherty at Total Farm Marketing: (800) 334-9779. Commodity trading may not be suitable for all recipients of this report. Futures and options trading involve marked risk of deficit and may not be suitable for everyone.

Examples of seasonal rate moves or extreme marketplace conditions are not meant to imply that such moves or conditions are common occurrences or likely to occur. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell, or hold a futures or options position on such work are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Total Farm Marketing and TFM refer to Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., Stewart-Peterson Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of the National Futures Association.

About the Author: With the wisdom of 30 years at Total Farm Marketing and a following across the Grain Belt, Bryan Doherty is deeply passionate about his clients, their success, and long-term, fruitful relationships. He has an in-depth understanding of the tools and marketplaces, listens, and communicates with intent and clarity to ensure clients are comfortable with the decisions.