India's rice production could fall by the most in nearly 20 years
Compared to last year's record harvest of 154 million tonnes, production could fall by about 6.5%.
The area under summer rice as of September 11 was 42.68 million hectares, down almost 4% year-on-year. Summer crops account for over 80% of total production. The area under winter rice may also decrease due to lower-than-normal water reserves in reservoirs.
Expectations of a smaller harvest have already supported domestic rice prices, with export quotes rising to their highest in more than a year. This could make Indian rice more expensive on the world market, as prices in other major exporting countries rise.
At the same time, large stocks allow India to maintain high export rates without new restrictions. As of September 1, government rice reserves, including unmilled rice, were a record 59.6 million tonnes, against a target of 10.3 million tonnes on October 1.
