Wine in the US: Some encouraging signs emerge

The US wine market isn't yet ready to celebrate a true turnaround, but some encouraging signs are beginning to emerge. This is the conclusion we can draw by comparing the latest SipSource data with those from NIQ, two monitoring systems that capture different stages of the supply chain.

SipSource, which tracks distributor depletions (or sell-outs, i.e., products leaving the distributor's warehouse after being purchased by retailers), describes a wine market trending in a more encouraging direction, while spirits remain under pressure. This reading, however, should be considered alongside NIQ retail data, where the picture remains negative: in the 52 weeks ending August 8, US off-premise wine sales decreased by 5.2% in value and 6.1% in volume compared to the previous year.

The contraction, therefore, is not over. But within this declining market, very different behaviors are emerging across categories and price ranges.

Sauvignon Blanc and bubbles resist

One of the most obvious signs concerns Sauvignon Blanc, which continues to show growth of approximately 3% in value over the most recent 90-day periods according to both NIQ and SipSource.

Even more interesting is what's happening in the sparkling wine sector. According to SipSource, over the last 90 days, Champagne revenue has increased by almost 15%, while Prosecco has seen growth of over 10%.

NIQ's picture is less positive for the category as a whole, but it confirms the presence of a particularly dynamic niche. Overall, the value of sparkling wine sales has decreased by 3.2% over the past year, while wines in the $15-$19.99 range have seen an increase of nearly 4%.

The data becomes even more interesting when narrowed down to the last four weeks: overall sparkling wine sales remain essentially stable, while the $15 to $19.99 range has grown by 10%. This is a significant price point for the American market, as it can represent both a small occasional treat and an affordable bottle for more regular consumption. However, not all sparkling wines are growing equally: in the same period, imported sparkling wines have gained more than 1%, while those produced in the United States have lost almost 3%.

The American consumer chooses, he doesn't simply stop buying

This is probably the most interesting point for industry players. The consumer crisis doesn't seem to be resulting in a uniform reduction in demand, but rather in a more marked selection of purchasing opportunities and products considered worth spending on.

The trend is also evident in spirits: the sector is losing value, but maintaining growth in volume, fueled above all by ready-to-drink (RTD) products, which according to NIQ are increasing by over 25% in both value and volume.

Even within beer, internal differences are emerging: India Pale Ales continue to hold their ground, while wheat ales and lagers are more closely following the category's decline. The message for wine is therefore far from trivial: in a declining market, some options continue to find space because they better respond to new consumer trends.

The lesson for Italian wine

For Italian producers, the US market remains complex, but the data suggests avoiding a purely quantitative approach. The overall decline in sales doesn't mean that American consumers have stopped spending; rather, it means they're becoming more selective about what they buy and how much they pay for it.

Champagne and Prosecco demonstrate that bubbles can continue to capture demand; Sauvignon Blanc confirms the strength of an instantly recognizable variety; the $15-$19.99 price range for sparkling wines also indicates the existence of a segment where perceived value and affordability can meet. For Italian companies, the challenge should therefore not only be recovering lost volumes, but also understanding which consumption occasions, price points, and categories will be able to generate new value.

In a changing US market, investing in product recognition, the ability to communicate its identity, and innovative offerings may become more important than indiscriminately chasing growth. The green signs are there, but they're still nascent: identifying them before they become established trends could make all the difference.

Key points:

• The US wine market remains negative, but SipSource data shows more encouraging signs than in previous months.
• Champagne and Prosecco have grown by nearly 15% and more than 10%, respectively, in the most recent 90 days, according to SipSource.
• The $15-$19.99 sparkling wine price range is up nearly 4% in the last year and 10% in the last four weeks, according to NIQ.
• The American consumer appears more selective, rewarding specific categories, consumption occasions and price ranges.
• For Italian producers, positioning, recognition, innovation, and perceived value become crucial, rather than simply recovering volumes.